Sunday, December 8, 2013

Exit polls and fallacy of mutiplicity of India media.

Today, the 8th of dec'2013 marks a historic day for urban middle class in India, particularly in Delhi where Aam Admi Party (AAP), a party born out of popular imagination for a political class free of corruption and performance put up a stellar show by winning 28 of the 70 assembly seats though falling short of the majority mark of 32. How far can the AAP can build upon this mandate and convert this into long term substance is yet to be seen, as every young urban voter (and non-voter) looks upon AAP to bring a change to the Indian political class of highhanded and blatantly corrupt office bearers. 

This day is also significant to highlight the utter discontent people have against the Congress party across the nation. The results spell that out in no unclear terms where, from being a party in power for the last 15 years in Delhi to being reduced to just a meager 8 seats and to having its worst ever performance in Rajasthan. Also it signifies a bleak future for the prince in waiting of Congress at least for the near term.

The other aspect these results highlight is the explosion of media houses in the country, each conducting its own exit polls and each claiming to be an expert at predicting future ala an Oracle. The variations in these predictions are wider than the content of statements made by our very own Piggy Singh. For example one of the predictions predicted 6 seats for AAP at one end and 28 at the other and yet each channel today claims to be spot on with their exit polls notwithstanding the mathematical impossibility of the same (unless some math-equivalent of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is at play). Each time these channels escape with either utterly asinine claims and shameless lies. Here I plan to give each on you a sense of the non-sense rolled out by the multitude of Indian media house by comparing their various exit polls predication and the reality of the results.

The exit-polls data is as shown on the various news channels and their websites on 4th of December and the actual results as shown on the Election commission website on 8th Dec'2013.

Fallacy of exit-polls and reality

 Clearly no one came any close to "Spot-onNess" as each one of them have been ranting the whole day.

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